What is the market’s view of ChromaDex’s future operating performance as reflected in the current price of $4? ChromaDex’s common shares will need to reach $7 to achieve average annual stock market performance of 9.0% over the next 6 years. Upper quartile performance will require a $9 ChromaDex stock price by 2028.
Executive Summary
- Key ChromaDex characteristics: above average expected growth, above average financial strength, average profitability, and instability. A big positive influence on ChromaDex’s valuation is its superior Risk Profile.
- Very high valuation, above market shareholder returns. Current valuation levels are very high relative to the ChromaDex Peer Group. Recent market returns have outperformed the ChromaDex Peer Group. Total shareholder returns expected to significantly lag the overall equity market. Based on current investor expectations, ChromaDex shares should reach a level of $0 by 2028 — an -33.1% per year total shareholder return. A 2028 stock price of $7 would reflect median performance and a price of $9 would be required to reach upper quartile performance.
- Historical growth has been high relative to the ChromaDex Peer Group and forecasted growth is relatively high. ChromaDex’s historical income statement and balance sheet growth are not available.
- Asset Turnover is group leading. This factor has strengthened market perceptions of ChromaDex. The company has very low cash and will have to work to generate attractive investments and improve valuation.
- Risk Profile has been ChromaDex’s biggest valuation strength. ChromaDex’s risk profile is very favorable. Overall variability has been very low with very low revenue variability, and only average stock price volatility. Financial Strength is relatively high and earnings’ expectations are relatively very high. The debt/capital ratio has been relatively steady.
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